Mercedes vs. McLaren: Early favourites for 2026?

With the overhaul in the 2026 Formula 1 regulations naturally come the predictions of the grid order in Melbourne. While many predictions remain just speculation until the cars are in action in the first race of the season, some early rumours have already pointed at two contenders for the 2026 Constructors’ title.

One team entered the 2026 season as the reigning champions of both the titles, seeing a rise from the back of the field to the front in four years. The other faced the biggest decline the team had seen since the hybrid era, going from eight consecutive team championships to fighting for the runner-up spot.

McLaren and Mercedes share the same engine, but they are in different positions with two different chassis designs, team operations and driver line-ups. Still, both will be fighting hard for the chance to emerge victorious in the first season under the new regulations.

Mercedes’s early prospects

Before the 2025 season even began, rumours circulated in the paddock that the Mercedes engine for 2026 looked like a frontrunner compared to the Ferrari or Red Bull options. Their development seemed advanced as the Brackley team showed determination not to end up plagued by issues as they were in 2022.

They saw their first promising sign in the private Barcelona test. George Russell echoes a sentiment shared by drivers up and down the grid: when something is wrong with the car, you feel it early on.

This time, Russell seemed uplifted and positive that any issues like porpoising had been avoided. For the team, one of the biggest positives was that the car responded as they expected it to.

Last year, one of the things that plagued their development was the inaccuracies of their simulations. Something that would work back at base didn’t translate to the car on the track. However, after just a few days in Barcelona, the team seem confident that everything is aligning in a way that is hopeful for this year.

McLaren's pre-season doubts

Despite the overhaul of regulations aiming to put teams on an equal playing field ahead of the 2026 season, some teams will be looking to ride the momentum they found in 2025. McLaren is one of them.

Taking their first Drivers’ Championship since 2008 and back-to-back Constructors’ Championships in a dominant manner reflected a spectacular season for the Woking-based outfit.

However, instead of building on their success and improving their car under the regulations, they have to unlock the key to success once again, facing the most significant overhaul of F1 regulations in over a decade.

McLaren didn’t share the same confidence as Mercedes following the private Barcelona test. In fact, the team came to Spain a step behind most of the other front-runners. Opting to forgo a shakedown the week before the test in favour of spending more time working on the car.

Unfortunately, less time on track is bound to bring up problems, which is precisely what McLaren struggled with. Early into the second day of running, Oscar Piastri’s time in the car was cut short following a fuel system issue, which halted the team’s work for the day in hopes of figuring it out.

The team quickly came away noting that competitors were already setting ‘a very high bar for performance’ and that they were slipping behind Mercedes.

Yet, both drivers and the team urge that the car felt good when it was on track, with no ‘nasties’ as Rob Marshall explained. Theoretically, they seem on the back foot, but with just under a week of testing in Bahrain ahead of the season starting, everything can change quickly in Formula 1.

Team workings

Beyond the team’s immediate hopefulness, Mercedes itself improved over the course of the 2022-2025 regulations. 
From eliminating their initial porpoising and struggling through winless seasons to taking consistent podiums and jumping Ferrari in the Constructors' fight. The team found a way to make the best of the struggles in their car design and maximise results.

Their driver line-up equally shows potential coming into 2026. With George Russell, they have experience. Having joined the sport in 2019, he’s seen regulation changes before and dealt with the difficulties Mercedes has faced.

He’s collected five wins and 24 podiums, but his sights are set on a championship title, especially after watching his fellow 2019 rookie take the title last year. Russell has grown to an impressive level of consistency, which, if he’s given the car, looks primed to be a championship contender.

Alongside him is his young Italian teammate, Kimi Antonelli. In just his second year in F1, Antonelli has a lot to learn, but as he showed by taking three podiums in his rookie season, he has the capability to fight at the front.

Now settling into his position within the team, the Italian will look to close the gap between him and his teammate and help propel the silver arrows close to a Constructors’ title.

On the other side of the coin, McLaren’s duo is just beginning to reach their peak. Lando Norris may have reigned victorious by the time the chequered flag fell in Abu Dhabi; however, it was not an easy win for the Brit.

The Australian and the Brit competed fiercely all season, exchanging the lead in the championship. For the first time since his rookie year, it felt as though Norris had found the confidence he lacked in recent seasons.  

For Oscar Piastri, he still looks to iron out the struggles he faced in the second half of the year. Although, his improvement in the past years has been swift and effective, going from a rookie who struggled with race pace to a consistent championship contender in 2025.

Assuming the trajectory continues within the papaya duo, the combination would be formidable in the new season, granted the car beneath them is competitive. 
Within the team, McLaren once again showed one of the most impressive improvements under the previous regulations. Going from being uncompetitive in 2022 and early 2023 to achieving victories and titles in 2024 and 2025.

They’ve shown not only that they can optimise a bad situation, but also that they can deliver effective upgrades that pull the car further through the order.

However, the only issue that formed within the team was when they were at the front of the field. When deciding which driver to prioritise through the title fight last season, the cracks began to show. Their insistence on not picking a leader left them just two points away from losing the Drivers’ title to Max Verstappen.

With the grid’s order likely to be tighter in the first year of the regulations, each mistake is bound to have a more profound impact, leaving McLaren without the breathing room it had in 2025.  

Regardless of how the new season unfolds, it's evident that 2026 will bring a reset to the Formula 1 hierarchy and landscape. While Mercedes and McLaren seem to be emerging as likely frontrunners, everything is still up for grabs, and the true order won't be clear until the chequered flag drops in Melbourne. 

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