The 2026 F1 grid takes shape: Mercedes doubles down on stability as Red Bull conundrum continues
21 October 2025With the recent confirmation that George Russell and Kimi Antonelli will carry on as Mercedes’ driver pairing into 2026, one of the largest uncertainties on next season’s grid is now settled.
But there are still several questions yet to be answered about the 2026 F1 grid, namely, who will join Max Verstappen at Red Bull and who will fill the two Racing Bulls seats.
Here’s our take on the latest happenings up and down the grid in the F1 driver market.
What this commitment signals for Mercedes
Stability through upheaval
2026 brings a seismic regulatory revolution – new power units, energy balance changes, active aerodynamics – which is essentially a performance reset button for the entire field.
In such a year of transition, continuity becomes a strategic asset. Locking in drivers already familiar with the team ensures fewer variables to manage when developing a box-fresh car and maintaining engineering feedback loops.
Faith in Russell as team leader
George Russell enters 2026 not just as a steady hand, but a bona fide title contender for Mercedes, should the Brackley-based outfit deliver a car capable of fighting for wins on a regular basis.
He has delivered strong performances this season – including wins in Canada and Singapore – and the new contract (though undisclosed in term) underscores Toto Wolff’s confidence in his potential to convert a car with decent pace into championship contention.
His ability to extract results when opportunities arise will be essential in harnessing the promise of Mercedes’ 2026 car.
Investing in Antonelli’s future
Kimi Antonelli, at just 19, is part of Mercedes’ long-term vision. He’s a product of the team’s junior programme, already showing flashes of brilliance, taking Sprint pole in Miami and his first Grand Prix podium in Montreal.
Retaining the young Italian now demonstrates that Mercedes is willing to persevere through the developmental growing pains of 2025, anticipating that Kimi will be able to match or even surpass Russell in the future.
A buffer for strategic pivots
Despite this confirmation, Mercedes retains its flexibility. George and Kimi’s contract lengths weren’t disclosed, only adding fuel to the speculative fire that the door remains open for Max Verstappen in 2027.
In the meantime, this solution is beautiful in its simplicity. It removes distraction and lets the team focus on the challenge of nailing the technical elements of this new era.
Mercedes’ decision to stay the course is, on the face of it, a vote of confidence in both drivers, but more broadly a bet that consistency and internal cohesion will matter even more as everybody adapts to the 2026 regulations.
Who joins Verstappen at Red Bull and what next for Racing Bulls?
With Mercedes’ line-up settled, attention now turns to Red Bull, specifically, who will partner Max Verstappen next year, and how the Red Bull / Racing Bulls driver ecosystem will shuffle around.
The frontrunner: Isack Hadjar
Among all the names in the frame, Isack Hadjar is the leading contender for the second Red Bull seat.
The French driver’s consistent point scores across the season, not to mention a spectacular podium in Zandvoort have landed him inside the top ten in the drivers’ standings.
He could be the real deal, but as we’ve seen too many times in the past, that’s no indication that a driver will thrive in the second Red Bull seat.
The big question is, would Isack see it as a golden opportunity or more hindrance than help in his still early career.
Perhaps another year at Racing Bulls would be the perfect place to get a sophomore season under his belt before tackling the hardest ask in motorsport – being Max Verstappen’s team-mate.
Yuki Tsunoda: A known quantity for Red Bull
Drafted in to fill Liam Lawson’s shoes early in the season, 2025 has been a tough year for Tsunoda, who’d really begun to flourish in Racing Bulls in 2024.
In recent races though, Yuki has begun to look more like the second driver Red Bull has been searching for. He’s scored three times in the last five races, and although he hasn’t been fighting for podiums, he’s been on an upward trajectory rather than a downward one.
If Red Bull are after a safe pair of hands in the new era of regulations, Yuki could be the driver for the job.
Liam Lawson: Down but not out
Lawson has put his struggles from early in the year firmly to bed since joining Racing Bulls. Like Hadjar, he too has been consistently scoring points – albeit not as many as the Frenchman – and raised many an eyebrow with his top-five finish in Baku.
It’s unlikely that Red Bull would enlist Liam’s services again, given his performance in the RB21 earlier in the year, but Racing Bulls could do a lot worse.
The dark horse: Arvid Lindblad
Those in the know are touting Formula 2 ace Arvid Lindblad as a key player in the 2026 line-up, potentially squeezing Lawson or Tsunoda out of a seat at Racing Bulls.
The 18-year-old has had some encouraging results in the 2025 F2 season, including victories in Saudi Arabia and Spain and had a successful practice outing in the RB21 at the 2025 British Grand Prix.
Four drivers are in the running, but only time will tell which three will be on the 2026 F1 grid.
